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Beware the tides of March
Jet Stream "On Steroids", Widespread Flooding Forecast
3/20: Tornadoes, storms cause severe damage throughout South Carolina
3/20: "Extremely Dangerous Situation" in the Caribbean
3/19: 13 Dead, 3 Missing in Central US Storm
click to enlarge
3/15: Powerful Tornado Damages Downtown Atlanta Storm rips holes in Georgia Dome, halting SEC tournament
Huge storms sweep northern Europe
Hurricane-Force Winds Hit Northern UK
Global Warming and Climate Chaos: The Westminster Briefing
March 15, 2008. A tornado ripped downtown Atlanta last night, tearing part of the roof off the Georgia Dome during the Southeastern Conference men's basketball playoffs; people in the CNN Building reported computers sucked out the windows.
Following one of the the hottest years of the last century, this winter has seen extremely severe storms, record cold, and record snowfalls from China to Wisconsin; global-warming skeptics are all abuzz. But the danger we face from our modifications to the atmosphere is not a gradual increase in temperature, but climate chaos. Record cold spells and snowfall, to the extent they represent something more than transient weather extremes, may be a sign of growing instability, rather than counter-indications of a simplistic linear warming. The injection of enormous amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere will not necessarily take us on a glide path to a warmer world. It will inevitably destabilize the delicate but enduring climate patterns in which humans have evolved, adapted, and developed. That means potentially wild swings of weather until a new stability is reached (and that may not be one to our liking). In the meantime, (and until long after we stop discharging CO2), we may see unpredictable and savage weather extremes more and more frequently as the interacting feedbacks which have stabilized the climate in the past are thrown out of kilter. This perspective has increasingly alarmed climate scientists in the last year leading up to the Bali Conference in December.
The Westminster Briefing was commissioned by the British 'All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group' in advance of the recent Bali Conference to "provide the best available scientific update for those currently involved in policy formulation".
The update was considered important because it dealt with the newly emerging issue of of feedback systems and the possibility of a "tipping point" in the earth system, beyond which lies 'unstoppable climate change'.
- SM
From the documentation:
"This leading edge scientific update was delivered to a packed audience in the House of Commons in June 2007. It is now released in the approach to the Bali Meeting of the UNFCCC because it presents material not yet addressed by the IPCC, but which is absolutely critical to the decision-making process at and beyond that event.
"Over the last two years there has been a profound shift in the scientific understanding of the behaviour of the earth's climate system. Although some specific feedback mechanisms were included in the more advanced climate models, the analysis of climate dynamics as a whole has proceeded far beyond that portrayed in the latest IPCC Assessment Report. It was not taken into consideration in the Stern Report, in the formulation of the Climate Bill currently before the UK Parliament, or in the process of target-setting of the present round of International negotiations.
"Almost all of the systems known to affect climate change are now in a state of net positive (amplifying) feedback. Each feedback mechanism accelerates its own specific process. The output of each feedback is an input to all other feedbacks, so the system as a whole constitutes an interactive set of mutually reinforcing sub-systems.
"This "second order" feedback system accelerates the rate of climate change and faces us with the possibility of a "tipping point" in the whole earth system. If we go beyond the point where human intervention can no longer stabilise the system, then we precipitate unstoppable runaway climate change.
"The implication is that climate change is non-linear. Once set in motion it is acceleratingly self-perpetuating. There is then only a small time-window within which human intervention has any (rapidly diminishing) chance of halting the process and returning the system to a stable state. Failure to act effectively within that window of opportunity would inevitably precipitate cataclysmic change on a par with the five mass extinction events known to have obliterated almost all life on earth.
"Strategically we have to generate a negative feedback intervention of sufficient power to overcome the now active positive feedback process. We then have to maintain its effectiveness during the remaining period of rising temperature, while temperature-driven positive feedbacks continue to operate. That is an extraordinarily difficult task, out of all comparison with strategies currently in place.
"Feedback Dynamics and the Acceleration of Climate Change" provides an essential briefing for every person and organisation involved in the UNFCCC Meeting in Bali. Beyond that it lays the foundation for all future strategic engagement with the imperative task of climate stabilisation."
The Westminster Briefing:
An Introduction to Climate Dynamics (pdf)
Feedback Dynamics and the Acceleration of Climate Change (pdf)
Accelerated Climate Change and the Task of Stabilisation (pdf)
Summary for Policy-Makers (pdf)
Further notes:
Chaos Theory and Climate
Related links and resources
"As Hong Kong shivers through its second-longest cold spell since 1885, scientists point to global warming to explain the abnormal cold weather phenomenon worldwide."
China battles "coldest winter in 100 years"
Severe winter weather damages 13% of China's forests
Planet's Coolest Winter Since 2001
Skeptics on Human Climate Impact Seize on Cold Spell
Global warming blamed for unusual cold spell
Will global warming trigger a new ice age?
Climate "Tipping Points" Identified
How Global Warming May Cause the Next Ice Age
Feedback Loop Puts The Heat On Climate Predictions
Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age
Gulf Stream has huge influence on atmosphere
Abrupt Climate Change
2007 Was Tenth Warmest For U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide
Impact Of Global Warming On Weather Patterns Underestimated
Arctic Heatwave Sends Climatologists Back To Drawing Board
Record warm winter in Finland
"Every place on the planet will be hit with extreme weather events"
Meteorologists See Future of Increasingly Extreme Weather Events
NASA: Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes
Coral Reefs Are Increasingly Vulnerable To Angry Oceans
Global Warming Means More Snow For Great Lakes Region
Global Warming Likely To Increase Stormy Weather
Climatologists Forecast Completely New Climates
African Dust Storms May Cool Atlantic
La Nina Conditions Strengthen, Expected To Continue
"Climate change poses serious security risks for the European Union"
CFR Report: Climate Change and National Security
Blair wants 'climate revolution' Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has called for a "global environment revolution" to tackle climate change.